Well, at the end of this week, bitcoin again made an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the Kijun-sen line, which lies at the price value of $ 52,300. Quotes rebounded from this level yesterday, so in general, now the upward movement can continue. However, as we have repeatedly said, the upward trend for the "cue ball" has already been going on for more than a year, which is very much for the "hype" cryptocurrency and each subsequent round of the upward movement is weaker than the previous one. Thus, we still draw the attention of the cryptocurrency market participant to the fact that the "cue ball" now has two important supports: $ 52,300 and $ 43,000-$ 44,000. If the first support is overcome in the near future (and we give 65% probability for this option), then the downward movement will continue to $ 43-44 thousand per coin. From our point of view, a strong correction is long overdue. In the long run, bitcoin is likely to continue to rise in price. But in the short and medium term, it has already risen in price enough, thus, it is time for a correction. However, bitcoin cannot be adjusted like a regular currency pair. Its specificity affects it. Bitcoin, as we have already understood in previous articles – is primarily an investment tool. And when an investment instrument falls, it is sold off massively. This has been the case at least twice in the history of BTC, and probably will be the third time. Thus, we are preparing for a strong drop in the quotes of the "cue ball", although, in the long term, we believe that it can continue to rise in price in the direction of the notorious $ 100,000 per coin.
Meanwhile, the forecast of $ 100,000 per coin is no longer something fantastic. For example, Bloomberg senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone believes that bitcoin will eventually grow to $ 400,000 per coin. Its analysis and forecast are based on data on the history of the bitcoin movement since 2010. According to McGlone, bitcoin will grow to this crazy value in 2021. However, using this type of analysis (if it has become more expensive in the past, it will become more expensive in the future), you can predict any value of an asset. We remind traders of one of the main tenets of trading: "profitability in the past does not guarantee profitability in the future". The same applies to the movement of any asset or instrument. If an asset has become more expensive in the past, it does not mean that it will become more expensive in the future. However, $ 400,000 is not the craziest forecast for bitcoin. Earlier, the head of the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, Jess Powell, predicted the cost of one coin for $ 1 million, and the head of the BTCC crypto exchange believes that the cost of "digital gold" will grow to$ 300,000 per coin. We remind you that the forecasts of those experts who are interested in the growth of bitcoin should be divided by 8. For people from the crypto industry, miners, and owners of the "cue ball", it is beneficial to support the opinion that bitcoin will continue to rise in price in any case. At the same time, the stronger, the better. The confidence of new traders and investors that the asset will become 100% more expensive attracts them to the market, which provokes an increase in the price of the asset, which is in the hands of those who already own it.
In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be on the verge of overcoming the level of $ 52,300 and will fall by 8-9 thousand down. We once again draw attention to the fact that each subsequent round of the upward movement is weaker than the previous one. This means that the upward trend is weakening. Therefore, a correction should be expected.
