Over the past few days, bitcoin has risen by $ 3,300 and reached the Fibonacci level on a 24-hour timeframe of 61.8%. In principle, this is exactly the scenario we talked about in our last reviews. Recall that at the 4-hour TF, the cryptocurrency overcame the upper line of the triangle, which allowed us to expect a new growth of bitcoin to the levels of 61.8% and $ 45,408. The second level, however, has not yet been worked out, but the price is near it. However, at the same time, bitcoin is still between the levels of $ 34,267 and $ 45,408. That is, inside the side channel, in which it has been for almost 3 months. Thus, at the moment, we have just another third working out of the upper limit of this channel and now everything depends on it. If the bulls manage to overcome the levels of 61.8% and $ 45,408, then the "bitcoin" will have very real technical grounds for further growth.
Let us also recall that whatever the fundamental or geopolitical background, bitcoin remains a rather "thin" and sensitive instrument. Although many experts talk about an increase in the level of acceptance of bitcoin by the masses, there are still far fewer people who own bitcoin and use it in their calculations and operations than in the case of conventional currencies. Let's make a comparison. Even if you live in Russia or Ukraine, you almost definitely have dollars. Either under the pillow or in the jar. In extreme cases, you can sell an apartment or a car and get a settlement in dollars. That is, in other words, a lot of people have dollars, and most international settlements continue to be conducted in dollars. The same applies to other currencies. For example, euro or yuan. Even if we count only the Chinese, it turns out that almost 2 billion people on Earth have yuan. Naturally, the number of people owning bitcoin is much lower. Based on this, we can conclude that the exchange rate of any currency is much more difficult to move than the bitcoin exchange rate. This explains the high volatility of cryptocurrencies. As well as their dependence on the mood of the market. Elon Musk will tweet that his Tesla is ready to sell cars for bitcoins, and the cryptocurrency immediately grows by $ 10,000. That is, by 10-15% of the cost. Can you imagine that the euro currency has grown by 10-15% in a couple of days?
Based on this, it follows that any fundamental or geopolitical background may or may not have an impact on the cryptocurrency, but bitcoin can still build trends. Therefore, we continue to believe that the foundation and geopolitics for BTC remain very unfavorable, but at the same time bitcoin may well start a new inexplicable "bullish" trend. It is always necessary to focus on the technique and to treat the "foundation" as in a hypothesis. We continue to believe that bitcoin will fall to $ 31,100, but if there are strong technical factors to buy, it's stupid to ignore them.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" rose for the third time to the level of $ 45,408 and continue to be inside the side channel of $ 34,267 - $ 45,408. If this level is overcome, then purchases will become relevant with targets of $ 49,109 (50.0% Fibonacci) and $ 51,350. In case of a rebound, we recommend selling bitcoin with the goals of $ 40,746 and $ 34,267.
