The EUR/USD pair was trading in absolute flat with low volatility on Thursday. All those reports that were scheduled for today were very weak and could hardly provoke a market reaction. And so it turned out. There were a couple of outbursts of emotions among traders during the day, but each of them did not exceed 15-20 points. And the total volatility did not exceed 50 points. Moreover, if at least a trend movement were observed with such weak volatility, it would be even half the trouble. But there was no trend, the pair moved sideways all day. Due to this nature of the movement, we do not even consider it necessary to pay attention to Thursday's macroeconomic reports. Let's just say that the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the US and the EU were published, as well as a report on orders for durable goods in the USA. In general, business activity indices turned out to be neutral, with minimal deviations from forecasts. Orders for goods decreased quite significantly, but traders ignored these data as well.
As for trading signals, there is absolutely nothing to analyze here, since there was not a single trading signal on Thursday. And I must say that this is very good, because it is always difficult to trade in the flat. The pair only once got close to the critical line, which, if everyone remembers, we decided not to move in the coming days, as well as the Senkou Span B. The fact is that in the flat these lines can practically merge into one, and now they form a fairly clear horizontal channel. No signal was formed near the critical line, since the price did not reach it by 4 points, and this is a large error for the euro. But even if someone opened a long position, it was possible to earn 10-20 points on it.
In the last two months, Commitment of Traders (COT) reports have signaled such changes in the mood of traders that absolutely did not correspond to what was actually happening in the foreign exchange market. Simply put, the euro continued to fall, while big commercial traders raised long positions. We said that such a divergence could arise due to the fact that the demand for the US currency increased sharply, which was simply higher than for the euro. However, the latest COT report showed that big players are also starting to change their preferences. During the last reporting week, the non-commercial group reduced the number of long positions by 40,000. That's a lot. The general mood of non-commercial traders still remains bullish, as the number of long positions exceeds the number of short positions by 19,000. However, trends are important to us. And now the trend is such that even major players can start selling the euro again. This is on top of the fact that the demand for the US dollar also remains high. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group decreased significantly last week and now almost all factors speak in favor of a further fall in the euro currency. Therefore, the euro can now show growth from time to time only on the basis of technical necessity to adjust.
The descending trend line remains relevant on the hourly timeframe. At the moment, the price is stuck between the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which form a horizontal channel. We remind you that we are not changing the location of the Ichimoku lines in the near future. The pair has more chances now to continue the downward movement, but for this it is necessary to overcome the Senkou Span B line. For new growth, bulls need to overcome not only the trend line, but also the critical line. We allocate the following levels for trading on Friday - 1.0806, 1.0901, 1.1122, 1.1234, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0962) and Kijun-sen (1.1049) lines. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The calendars of macroeconomic events in the United States and the European Union are completely empty on March 25. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to, and the price may continue to remain during the day between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines.
