The EUR/USD pair showed very modest movements on Monday. In fact, the price only moved sideways all day, without even trying to move in any other way. Two important events were planned for yesterday. The speeches of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank heads Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde were to take place. However, neither the first nor the second provided the markets with any new information. ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke mainly about inflation and stagflation, trying to convince the audience that there are no serious risks for the European economy. However, we all remember Lagarde's earlier speeches, where she spoke about the much weaker state of the European economy compared to the American one. We also remember that the ECB and the Fed held meetings last week and the week before, so all relevant information is already at the disposal of traders.
As for trading signals, two buy signals were generated during the day. However, given the fact that a weakly volatile flat was observed all day, they clearly could not bring profit to traders. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the US trading session, the pair bounced off the critical line, forming a buy signal. It took her several hours to bounce off Kijun-sen, so the signal was weak. Over the next few hours, the pair failed to go up and 10 points and returned to the critical line when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech began. But it was not possible to overcome this line and the pair made another attempt to start a round of upward movement. With the same success. As a result, traders could close a single trade in profit of about 5-10 points manually in the late afternoon.
In the last two months, Commitment of Traders (COT) reports have signaled such changes in the mood of traders that absolutely did not correspond to what was actually happening in the foreign exchange market. Simply put, the euro continued to fall, while big commercial traders raised long positions. We said that such a divergence could arise due to the fact that the demand for the US currency increased sharply, which was simply higher than for the euro. However, the latest COT report showed that big players are also starting to change their preferences. During the last reporting week, the non-commercial group reduced the number of long positions by 40,000. That's a lot. The general mood of non-commercial traders still remains bullish, as the number of long positions exceeds the number of short positions by 19,000. However, trends are important to us. And now the trend is such that even major players can start selling the euro again. This is on top of the fact that the demand for the US dollar also remains high. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group decreased significantly last week and now almost all factors speak in favor of a further fall in the euro currency. Therefore, the euro can now show growth from time to time only on the basis of technical necessity to adjust.
On the hourly timeframe, both trend lines and the important level of 1.1122, which has not been overcome, remain relevant at this time. We believe that a new trend should be determined by overcoming the level of 1.1122 or by overcoming the ascending trend line. But the pair spent Monday in full flat and did not even try to overcome or at least work out any of these lines. Therefore, we expect it today. On Tuesday, we allocate the following levels for trading - 1.0901, 1.1122, 1.1234, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0962) and Kijun-sen (1.1032) lines. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Another speech by Lagarde will take place in the European Union on March 22, but most likely it will be as informative as yesterday's. Nothing interesting is planned at all in the United States, so there will be nothing to pay attention to during the day. The worst thing that can happen is a continuation of the flat. Then both trend lines can miss the pair by themselves, but neither a buy signal nor a sell signal will be formed.
