The GBP/USD currency pair also failed to show anything significant on Friday. However, we should immediately note that the nature of the movement of both major pairs during the day was radically different. If the European currency was slowly declining during the day, while remaining in the horizontal channel on the higher TF, then the pound was riding a roller coaster during the day, forming signals almost in batches. A fairly important retail sales report was published in the UK in the morning, which traders rarely paid attention to earlier. However, this time they still decided to work out this report. And since its value turned out to be worse than forecasts, a sell-off of the British currency followed immediately after its release. However, the US dollar did not receive any special advantage from this, since the British currency was already growing in the afternoon, and in general, the pair remained between the levels of 1.3158 and 1.3222 all day. That is, in a fairly narrow horizontal channel.
Now as for trading signals. There weren't that many of them, but they were somehow big in themselves. In other words, it took an hour or more for each signal to be formed, and the Kijun-sen line and the 1.3194 level were involved in each formation at once. This is not surprising, since they were located close to each other. However, this made the trading process difficult. The first sell signal was formed when the price overcame both the Kijun-sen and the 1.3194 level. The pair managed to go down a little more than 20 points, so traders should have had time to set a Stop Loss at breakeven, but it is unlikely to make a profit. Next, the pair formed another sell signal when it bounced off the same area. This time, it did not even pass 10 points down. The deal closed at a loss. The last two signals (for buying and for selling) should no longer be worked out.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed a new strengthening of the bearish mood among professional traders. However, in general, the mood of the major players has changed too often in recent months, which is clearly seen by the two indicators in the chart above: they are constantly changing the direction of their movement. At the moment, the number of open long positions is less than the number of short positions by almost 37,000. Although three weeks ago their number was almost the same. Thus, the non-commercial group has dramatically changed its mindset, but at the same time it is still not possible to draw any medium-term conclusions now. Firstly, as already mentioned, the mood of major players changes too often, so it is impossible to identify any trend. Secondly, at this time, not only the demand for the pound, which is displayed in the COT reports, matters, but also the demand for the dollar. Thirdly, the geopolitical factor can have an unexpected and sudden impact on the movement of the pound/dollar pair. Therefore, at this time, we can assume a new medium-term fall of the British pound without COT reports. The pound may even rise by 200-300 points at first as part of the next round of correction, and only after that it will rush down again. Non-commercial traders reduced their net position by 8,000 contracts during the reporting week.
The technical picture continues to look very strange on the hourly timeframe. The pair has settled below the ascending channel, but it cannot continue falling. The horizontal channel is formed at the levels of 1.3158 and 1.3222, and the lines of the Ichimoku indicator in the flat may behave strangely. The flat looks even more eloquent on the 4-hour TF. Thus, in the coming days, the pair may be inside a limited range, although there will be a fairly large amount of important fundamental information in the new week that traders will have to react to. We highlight the following important levels on March 28: 1.3000, 1.3087, 1.3158, 1.3222, 1.3273. The Senkou Span B (1.3104) and Kijun-sen (1.3208) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. There are no important events scheduled for Monday in the UK and the US. Thus, we believe that the pair will spend the day within the horizontal channel.
