The technical picture for bitcoin looks pretty bad on the 4-hour timeframe. Firstly, it is very clear that the cryptocurrency has been in a limited price range in recent weeks. Yes, this range is quite large, about $10,000, but given its volatility, it is difficult to expect that the channel will be narrower. Secondly, the cryptocurrency exchange rate was squeezed into a triangle, which is quite formal. The biggest questions are caused by its upper line, which should pass through the penultimate maximum value of March 9. Thus, the triangle seems to be there, but it is not a fact that trading signals near its lines will be strong. The main conclusion that can be made now is that bitcoin is consolidating. It can also be said that the bulls cannot seize the initiative and direct the cryptocurrency to another conquest of the highs of value. We have already talked about the unfavorable fundamental background, so it will not be repeated. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency failed to reach the target around the level of $31,100, failed to lose 80-90% of the value after the completion of the bullish trend. Therefore, we still believe that bitcoin is not immune from a new fall.
Geopolitics helped bitcoin for a while, but now everything has changed
The geopolitical factor is a rather complex factor. We all witnessed how stock markets and risky currencies fell when the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia began. However, it was bitcoin that showed resistance to the geopolitical factor, refraining from a new collapse. We believe that the growth in demand for cryptocurrency occurred due to the fact that serious financial sanctions were imposed against Russia, which practically blocked the ability to withdraw money abroad. Since the outflow of capital from Russia abroad is absolutely normal, especially when there is a high probability of default, the demand for bitcoin has grown. It is with the help of cryptocurrencies that you can still transfer money around the world. It is quite difficult to buy a dollar in Russia now, so bitcoin could be used as a hedging tool for risks associated with the Russian ruble. To some extent, we can say that the Russians saved bitcoin from a new fall. However, they can't save it forever. Bitcoin failed to settle above the level of $45,408, which means the weakness of the overall position of the bulls. In general, we believe that bitcoin has received only temporary support, and then it will either continue to consolidate or resume falling. Especially if the geopolitical situation worsens. Especially if the Federal Reserve raises the rate by 0.5% today.
On the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin's quotes failed to overcome the level of $45,408 several times, but at the same time a new support level of $34,267 appeared, which did not let the price fall below itself. It is between these levels that consolidation takes place. Settling above the triangle could theoretically trigger a new round of cryptocurrency growth to $45,408. And settling below the triangle is a drop to $34,267. These are the most obvious signals that may form in the near future.
