The EUR/USD pair was in a corrective move on Wednesday and tested the 1.1019 mark by the end of the day. US retail sales increased by 0.3%, while experts had expected the figure to rise by 0.4%. The market clearly showed no reaction to the results. Due to the FOMC meeting, it is hard to tell in what direction the pair might go on Thursday as volatility might soar and several reversals might occur. Given that the market was prepared for the Fed's decision and Powell's speech, its reaction might be short-lived.
In the M5 time frame, a few trading signals were produced on Wednesday. All the signals were made near the 1.1019 level. Unfortunately, neither of them could have brought beginners a profit. When the first signal was produced, the price went down by about 20 pips and then returned to 1.1019. A stop-loss order triggered and the trade closed at the breakeven point. When the second signal was generated, the quote plunged by 30 pips for 5 minutes at some point. Therefore, it was not the best time for going short. The third signal should have been ignored because two false signals were produced near the level. However, if beginner traders went short after the third signal, their trades would still close at the breakeven point after a stop-loss order had triggered, or they would yield the lowest possible profit.
Trading plan for Thursday:
In the 30M time frame, the downtrend has stopped. The pair has traded in the range between 1.0870 and 1.1019 for 4 days. However, the technical picture may soon reverse. In any case, there is no clear trend, trend line, or channel now. The target levels in the 5M time frame are seen at 1.0870, 1.0902, 1.0932, 1.1019, and 1.1106. A stop-loss order should be set at the breakeven point as soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction. No important macro events are to unfold in the US and the eurozone on Thursday and the market will unlikely react to data on US industrial production. Meanwhile, traders will be digesting the outcome of the FOMC meeting, so the reaction might be seen in the market in the next 24 hours.
