The GBP/USD pair traded in different directions on Friday, but at the same time, it is quite similar to the EUR/USD pair. In the first half of the day, the bears tried to take the initiative into their own hands, but in the second half, the bulls returned to the market and kept the pair from falling again. At the same time, neither the minimum of the previous day nor the maximum was broken. That is, so far there is a rather weak upward trend, but at the same time, it can end at any moment. Recall that this week two meetings of central banks took place at once, which are directly related to the pound/dollar pair. And both of these meetings were followed by a rather strange reaction of the market. If in the case of the Fed, the dollar first rose and then collapsed, then after the meeting of the Bank of England, the pound sterling already collapsed. And this is although both central banks have raised the key rate. That is, at this time, the technical picture is most similar to the fact that the pair is simply correcting against a rather strong downward movement that has been observed in recent weeks. There were no important macroeconomic statistics on Friday in either the UK or the US. There were no important geopolitical events or news either.
On a 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture is very similar to the movements of the euro/dollar pair. The pound/dollar also generated exactly three signals, the first two of which were false. Accordingly, they did not bring profit to traders, and after the formation of the third signal, which was just strong, but it should not have been worked out, the price went in the right direction 35 points. Similarly, the Friday morning movement could not be caught, since no sell signal was formed. In general, the movement and trading signals on Friday were as uncomfortable as possible for novice players. Unfortunately. The levels of 1.3124 and 1.3134 were removed at the end of the day, as their price overcame as it wanted, and they did not carry any resistance. A new level of 1.3110 was also added, which is Friday's low. We can only hope that next week's movements will be more tradable. However, according to many experts, the military Ukrainian-Russian conflict is moving into a very important stage, after which either the process of de-escalation or a new escalation will begin. Therefore, geopolitics may once again have a strong influence on the pair's movement in the near future.
How to trade on Monday:
On the 30-minute TF, the pair overcame the descending trend line and continued to move up. Although the pair has been actively trading this week, it cannot yet be said that an upward trend has been formed. A trend line can be formed, but it is not the most accurate and clear. However, consolidation below it may indicate a resumption of the downward trend. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3042, 1.3082, 1.3110, 1.3210, 1.3241. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. Nothing interesting and important is planned for tomorrow in the UK, and Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will give a speech in the USA. We do not believe that Powell will report anything important, we got very familiar with his opinion and the direction of the Fed's monetary policy last week.
