ECB’s meeting minutes is up today!
Will the release boost EUR/GBP from its support zone?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at USD/CHF’s descending channel on the 1-hour time frame. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Canada’s Ivey PMI shows activity expanding at record speed (74.2) in March
U.S. and allies announce sanctions on new investment in Russia and Russia’s Sberbank and Alfa Bank
FOMC meeting minutes: “Many” participants preferred a 50bp increase in March
FOMC meeting minutes: Members “generally agreed” to taper Treasury holdings by up to $60B per month and MBS holdings by up to $35 per month, phased in over three months
Higher input price pressures, staff shortages slows down Australia’s AIG services index from 60.0 to 56.2 in March
Australia’s trade surplus tightens from 11.79B AUD to 7.46B AUD, the smallest since March 2021, as imports hit record highs in February
The Times: U.K. to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine
Asia shares slide on hawkish Fed, China worries, dollar holds firm
Oil under pressure on IEA emergency oil release
Germany’s industrial output slows from 1.2% to 0.2% in February
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
Eurozone’s retail sales at 9:00 am GMT
ECB’s monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30 am GMT
U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Bullard to give a speech at 1:00 pm GMT
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen to talk crypto regulation at 2:30 pm GMT
RBA’s financial stability review at 1:30 am GMT (Apr 8)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: EUR/GBP
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but EUR/GBP has been trading inside a 150-pip range for the most part of 2022.
The range is more attractive today because EUR/GBP is about to reach the .8300 support on the 4-hour time frame. And all in time for the European Central Bank (ECB) printing its latest meeting minutes!
Recall that ECB members surprisingly turned hawkish in March, saying that it could end its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as early as Q3 when markets only priced in the end of the Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
Details on how many members turned hawkish (and why) could attract EUR buyers into solidifying the .8300 zone as a range support. Stochastic might even help since it had just left the oversold area on the chart.
I’m not all-in on a EUR/GBP range bounce though. The U.S. and its allies have just imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s major banks and Putin’s friends while International Energy Agency (IEA) members have released oil reserves to counter the impact of Russia’s “special military operation.”
Until there’s fresh development on peace talks with Russia, EUR could remain under pressure even against GBP.
