The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its second month since last February.
The latest World Bank report revealed the Ukrainian economy has the potential to shrink by up to 45% this year as a result of the Russian military invasion on 24 February.
At the same time, developing countries in the European and Central Asian region need to be prepared as they are expected to bear the impact of the conflict between the two countries.
However, such predictions depend on the duration of the tense war between Russia and Ukraine.
While the Russian economy is likely to contract by about 11%; or according to the Institute of International Finance claims a contraction could occur up to 15% as a result of various restrictions imposed by the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).
The following are lengthy details of the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the global economy:
Expected production data for developing countries in Europe and Central Asia can be detailed as follows:
Expected to decline to 4.1% in 2022, in contrast to expectations during pre-war, production output is expected to increase 3%.
Depletion factors are associated with the impact of COVID-19 wars and pandemics
This contraction is expected to be twice as high as in 2020.
The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report revealed the global economic outlook for this year has been lowered to 4.4% with estimates in January being half lower than the October 2021 projection.
This factor is driven by very weak economic momentum in the US and China as inflation and energy resource prices rise.
The National Institute for Economic and Social Research of the United Kingdom (UK) revealed the Russia-Ukraine war could:
Reduce global gross domestic product by 1% (or $ 1 trillion) by 2023.
Further raise global inflation to 3% in 2022 and around two percentage points in 2023.
Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan are expected to fall into recession this year with growth projections lowered to lower levels in all aspects of the economy.
Russia and Ukraine account for about 40% of import activity in the region and about 75% or more for Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Russia - a major export destination for most countries with a record of remittances from Russia of almost 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) for some Central Asian economies.
