The GBP/USD currency pair was also trading in an open flat on Friday. The volatility was not too strong, but in the given conditions 80 points is not much. Traders had nothing to react to on Friday, so the horizontal movement is quite logical. The pair tried to correct against the upward trend that has formed in recent weeks, but nothing came of it. In general, it is worth noting that in recent weeks the euro and the pound have been moving almost identically, which means that now, as in the past few months, everything depends on the dollar and demand for it. After the US currency rose after February 24, it is finally time for a technical correction, and the euro and the pound are trying to use the opportunity to the maximum. Unfortunately, the growth of European currencies cannot be called stable and justified, since the slightest deterioration in the geopolitical or fundamental background can cause both currencies to drop. The fundamentals may worsen as early as next month, when the Federal Reserve will raise the rate by 0.5%, and the Bank of England will take a break.
Trading signals for the pound on Friday were "mirror" to the euro. Two buy signals, both near the 1.2601 extreme level. In the first case, the price went up 40 points, and in the second case, the signal was formed too late, so it should not even have been worked out. On the first long position, it was possible to make a profit only when the deal was closed manually, but it was impossible to get a loss, since Stop Loss had to be immediately set to breakeven. Consequently, traders could take the minimum profit, but if not, then nothing terrible happened either.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed almost no change. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 700 long positions and opened 500 shorts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by only 1,200. The net position has been falling for three months already, which is perfectly visualized by the green line of the first indicator in the chart above or the histogram of the second indicator. The non-commercial group has already opened a total of 106,000 shorts and only 26,000 longs. Thus, the difference between these numbers is already more than four times. This means that the mood among professional traders is now "pronounced bearish". Note that in the case of the pound, the COT report data very accurately reflects what is happening in the market: the mood of traders is "very bearish", and the pound has been falling against the US dollar for a very long time. In the last two weeks, the pound has started rising, but even in the chart for this paragraph (daily timeframe), this movement looks very weak so far. Since in the case of the pound, the COT report data reflects the real picture of things, we note that a strong divergence of the red and green lines of the first indicator often means the end of the trend. Therefore, now you can really count on a new upward trend. And since the euro and the pound are very often traded in the same way, you can count on an upward trend for the euro. Of course, if the geopolitics or the foundation does not continue to deteriorate.
We had to rebuild the ascending trend line on the hourly timeframe, as it was recognized as irrelevant last week, but the upward trend continues. However, the pair's growth is slowing down, which may lead to a new breakthrough of the trend line. This is a rather difficult time for traders, as a new global upward trend may have begun, but it is very unstable, and the pound/dollar pair can take a break for a couple of weeks and trade on a "swing" or in a flat after a two-week upward spurt. Today we highlight the following important levels: 1.2259, 1.2405-1.2410, 1.2496, 1.2601, 1.2674, 1.2762. Senkou Span B (1.2376) and Kijun-sen (1.2568) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no interesting events and publications on the calendar of events for today. Nothing interesting is planned in the US either, so traders will have to rely on technique.
