The EUR/USD pair began a new round of corrective movement on Monday. The pair failed to reach its latest local high of 1.0787 and, accordingly, to update it too. Thus, it is now completely unclear whether the upward trend continues, and the pair is simply correcting, or whether the bulls have already abandoned long positions on the euro and now we are waiting for a new fall. Over the past few days, the pair has overcome the lines of the Ichimoku indicator several times, and the movement is most like a "swing". Apart from that, there were no important macroeconomic statistics or just important events on Monday. Therefore, there was nothing to react during the day. In general, the situation now is not entirely unambiguous and difficult.
There were trading signals on Monday, but not all of them were good. For example, the first sell signal near the extreme level of 1.0748 was almost perfect in terms of accuracy, and after it was formed, the pair dropped to the critical line. A short position allowed traders to earn at least 35 points. But then the signals became much worse. First there was a rebound from Kijun-sen, after which the price went up only 20 points. Therefore, a Stop Loss at breakeven should have been placed on a long position, according to which the deal was closed. Then the pair once again dropped to the critical line and settled below it, but could not move even 10 points in the right direction and traded along this line for the rest of the day. As a result, a minimal loss could have been received on the last, third transaction. As a result, you could end the day with a small profit.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro raised a lot of questions. Recall that in the past few months, they showed a blatant bullish mood of professional players, but the euro fell all the time. Now the situation has begun to change, but not at the expense of the market players themselves, but due to the fact that the euro has begun to grow. That is, the mood of traders remains bullish (according to COT reports), and the euro began to grow due to the fact that it needs to be corrected from time to time. But at the same time, the bullish mood has persisted for quite some time, and the euro has barely managed to add 400 points in the last few weeks. During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 500, and the number of shorts in the non-commercial group decreased by 13,800. Thus, the net position grew by 14,300 contracts per week. The number of longs exceeds the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 50,000 already. From our point of view, this happens because the demand for the US dollar remains much higher than the demand for the euro. Now a certain "respite" has begun for the euro, but this does not mean that the global downward trend will not resume on Monday, and the data from COT reports will not continue to contradict the real state of things on the market. Therefore, we believe that it is still impossible to rely on such report data for forecasting.
The pair is currently either trying to start a new downward trend, or trying to somehow maintain an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. The fact is that neither the last local high nor the last local low can be worked out and surpassed. We have already said that formally the trend is now down, but in the last few days it is more like a "swing". A "swing" occurs when traders cannot decide on the further direction of trading. Today, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.0459, 1.0579, 1.0637, 1.0748, 1.0806, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0660) and Kijun-sen (1.0695). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events scheduled for June 7 in the European Union and the United States. Traders will once again have nothing to pay attention to during the day.
