The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday, which began the day before, when the results of the ECB meeting were announced. Despite the fact that these same results can hardly be called dovish, the European currency collapsed. And it continued to fall amid the dollar's growth on Friday, which received support due to another crazy report on US inflation. The consumer price index in America has already risen to 8.6% y/y, as if showing that the Federal Reserve's rate hike does not bother it at all. Thus, the US central bank has not achieved any result by tightening monetary policy twice, so it is reasonable to expect that the tightening will continue. This conclusion supported the US dollar. Thus, in just two days the pair lost 200 points and left the horizontal channel. The level of 1.0636 was surpassed, so the global downward trend has now been restored. There is no downtrend line, as the price has been in the horizontal channel for almost two weeks. The euro is once again heading for its 20-year lows.
The technical picture looks very cool on the 5-minute timeframe. Using the chance, once again we draw your attention to the fact that when there is a trend movement, trading is very easy and profitable. Seven trading signals were formed on Friday and all of them were for short positions. The first two were formed at the very beginning of the European session, when the price bounced twice from the level of 1.0636. At this point, short positions should have been opened. Then the pair broke through the levels of 1.0607, 1.0564 and 1.0532. From the latter, it also bounced twice from below. Since there was no signal for long positions, shorts had to be closed manually in the late afternoon. As a result, this single trade managed to earn 110 points. As you can see, there were seven signals, there was only one deal, and the profit on it was high. That's what a trend is! Volatility on Friday was even higher, but this is not surprising, as the macroeconomic background was strong.
How to trade on Monday:
The pair left the horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe and formed a new downward trend. There is no trend line or channel yet, but the euro has shown impressive declines over the past two days. Thus, we believe that this time traders will try to break 20-year lows around the 1.0360 level. On the 5-minute TF on Monday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0389, 1.0465, 1.0532, 1.0564, 1.0607, 1.0636, 1.0663. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be nothing interesting in the European Union and America in macroeconomic or fundamental terms. The news calendar is empty. Thus, there is a good opportunity for a slight upward correction. In the coming days, you should figure out whether the downward trend will continue. If yes, then traders will try to get rid of the euro even on days when there are no reasons for this, and most macroeconomic statistics will be interpreted in favor of the US dollar.
