GOLD Analysis - How far will the price of gold fall?

thecekodok

 The movement of gold commodity prices still failed to trigger an attraction against the US dollar which continued to strengthen at the opening of trading earlier this week.


It is seen that the US dollar managed to maintain its strengthening due to market sentiments that are considered risky with investors' worries about the global economic recession.


President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) St. Louis James Bullard, who took a hawkish tone last week, has reiterated his desire for the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy and is leaning towards another 75 basis point hike in September for a third time.


But investors remained cautious after reviewing the dovish minutes of the FOMC meeting which raised the possibility of the Fed slowing rate hikes earlier.


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of this week will provide an indication of the further movement of the US dollar.


Also observed by investors for factors affecting the movement of gold, the dollar index managed to break through the barrier level of 109, recording the highest level since September 2002, and it was seen that the US 10-year bond yield also managed to continue increasing up to the daily highest level of 3.050%, making gold commodity trading continue to be severe.


Evaluating the movement on the XAU/USD price chart which measures the value of gold against the US dollar, the price is seen to have continued to drop lower past the 1740.00 level in the early trading session yesterday after the gold price movement at the end of last week had already been below the 1760.00 zone.


Still signaling a bearish trend, the Moving Average 50 (MA50) line indicator on the 1-hour time frame on the XAU/USD chart is still a barrier for prices to make gains.



The decline in prices that continued into the New York session yesterday is seen to have reached a new low around 1728.00, maintaining the pattern of price declines since last week.


However, continuing to the Asian trading session today (Tuesday), the price is seen to start moving horizontally and slowly around the 1740.00 zone testing the MA50 barrier level at the beginning of the European session.


If the price continues to decline lower, the price is expected to drop towards 1720.00 to test the support zone and also record the latest lowest level for gold.


However, if the price fails to shrink to the support level of 1720.00 and instead rises higher from the 1740.00 zone beyond the MA50 barrier, the indication for a change in the bullish trend will make investors expect a surge in gold prices to occur again.


The initial jump in price will test the SBR (support become resistance) zone of 1760.00 which became the price resistance at the end of last week's trade before the continued increase will lead to the SBR zone of 1780.00 and the resistance of 1800.00.