'He made a decision in the wrong season I think.'
Heading into the new year, macroeconomic advisory firm Wigram Capital Advisors predicts a 'winter wave' of the Covid-19 epidemic will hit China as it relaxes its zero-Covid policy.
The firm issued a warning saying that China's health system will face major problems with the Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) celebration in January becoming a catalyst for the spread.
It is also predicted that major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will record a death toll of as high as 20,000 people per day by mid-March 2023.
The number of those admitted to the hospital is predicted to increase to 70,000 people a day.
The foundation was formulated by the firm after the Chinese authorities took the approach of relaxing the zero Covid-19 policy and introduced 10 new measures such as allowing those with mild symptoms to quarantine at home.
Wigram described the move as the Chinese government's unpreparedness in preparing the country to reopen based on low vaccination rates for the elderly, lack of intensive care units and incompetent use of vaccines.
However, China's top health officials stressed that the 10 new measures will be implemented carefully and comprehensively as they do not signal a complete relaxation.
Instead it will be implemented based on experience accumulated in response to the new characteristics of the mutating virus.
If it is true that the Chinese government is able to coordinate Covid while reopening its economy, Wigram projects that the number of deaths will decrease to 4,000 people a day by August next year.
