Risk-off flows weighed on the Kiwi, even as most markets were closed on a holiday.
Can NZD/USD still manage to pull higher during the NFP release?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at USD/CAD’s rising channel leading up to Canada’s jobs release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Canadian economy added 34.7K jobs in March vs. estimated 10.2K increase and previous 21.8K gain, enough to keep jobless rate steady at 5.0% vs. projected uptick to 5.1%
U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 228K vs. 200K consensus and previous 246K increase
Canadian Ivey PMI improved from 51.6 to 58.2 in March to reflect sharply stronger pace of expansion vs. estimated 52.0 figure
Japanese average cash earnings accelerated from 0.8% to 1.1% y/y in February vs. projected 1.2% figure, monthly data reflected eleventh consecutive monthly decline
Japan’s household spending rebounded from a 0.3% drop to a 1.6% gain in February vs. estimated 4.9% surge
Asian and European markets closed for Holy Thursday and Good Friday holidays
Price Action News
Despite the lack of top-tier catalysts over the past trading sessions, the Kiwi lagged behind its peers while the franc snagged the top spot as risk aversion seemed to linger in the markets.
Sideways price action resumed around the U.S. and Asian sessions, as traders likely lightened up their positions to prep for the NFP release and the shortened trading week.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. consumer credit data at 7:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
NZD/USD: 1-hour
This pair remains in a steady uptrend within its ascending channel, but price is now down to the very bottom.
Support at the .6250 minor psychological mark and pivot point seem to be holding, though, so more Kiwi bulls might decide to take advantage of upside momentum from here.
If that’s the case, NZD/USD could recover to the top of the channel at the .6350 mark and R2 (.6360) or at least until the middle at R1 (.6310).
Of course this all boils down to the outcome of the NFP report, as a downside surprise would confirm fears of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 228K in hiring, down from the earlier 311K gain, which might still be enough to keep the jobless rate unchanged at 3.6%.
