This week is filled to the brim with top-tier data releases, so make sure you’ve prepped for these potential profit opportunities!
Not only does China have its quarterly GDP and retail sales data due, but we’ve also got inflation and consumer spending reports lined up from major economies.
Before all that, ICYMI, I’ve written a quick recap of the market themes that pushed currency pairs around last week. Check it!
And now for the closely-watched economic indicators on the calendar this week:
China’s data dump
Things are off to an exciting start, as the Chinese Q2 GDP is up for release on Monday (July 17, 2:00 am GMT) and might show a jump from 4.5% quarterly growth to a whopping 7.1% expansion over the second quarter of 2023.
Note that the past three out of four releases have surpassed expectations, so we might be in for another upside surprise this time. However, other data points also up for release then might point to a slowdown.
For instance, the industrial production figure is slated to show a dip from 3.5% year-over-year to just a 2.5% gain in July. Also, the retail sales report might indicate a large drop in consumer spending from 12.7% year-over-year to just 3.4% last month.
Inflation reports
Next up we’ve got Canada’s inflation reports lined up for Tuesday (July 18, 12:30 pm GMT). This might be crucial in setting the tone for the Bank of Canada’s policy bias, so better keep an eye out for a big Loonie reaction to the release.
As discussed in the Event Guide for Canada’s June 2023 CPI Report, analysts are counting on a slight slowdown in inflationary pressures for the month. The headline reading is slated to dip from 0.4% to 0.3% month-over-month while the trimmed mean CPI could fall from 3.8% to 3.6% year-over-year.
Another major economy scheduled to print its inflation data midweek is New Zealand, which will be releasing its Q2 CPI on July 18, 10:45 pm GMT.
Much slower price pressures are eyed for the period, as the reading could fall from 1.2% to 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, suggesting that the RBNZ might sit on its hands for a while.
Recall that the central bank already announced its first tightening pause last week and even signaled that the OCR could remain at current restrictive levels now that global growth and inflationary pressures are slowing.
Last but certainly not least is the United Kingdom which will be printing its CPI figures on July 19, 6:00 am GMT. A dip in headline inflation is expected, with the year-over-year CPI reading slated to fall from 8.7% to 8.2%.
Still, stronger than expected U.K. inflation readings might keep the BOE on a tightening path, as the central bank continues to scramble to rein in price pressures.
Retail sales data
Also due on July 18, 12:30 pm GMT is the U.S. consumer spending report for June. Estimates are for a 0.5% month-over-month gain in headline retail sales, stronger than the earlier 0.3% uptick, while the core figure could accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4% monthly growth.
Rounding up the retail sales releases for the week are the numbers from the U.K. and Canada lined up for Friday, July 21.
The former could print a slight dip in consumer spending from 0.3% monthly growth in May to a meager 0.2% uptick in July while the latter could see a more significant slowdown from 1.1% to 0.5% for the headline figure.
