Will Lagarde’s speech in Jackson Hole spur another wave of losses for the euro?
If so, this quick pullback setup on EUR/NZD might play out!
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out GBP/AUD’s bearish retracement ahead of the U.K. PMIs. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. flash manufacturing PMI down from 49.0 to 47.0 vs. 48.9 forecast in August, flash services PMI slipped from 52.3 to 51.0 vs. 52.1 estimate
Eurozone consumer confidence index dipped from -15 to -16 vs. expectations of no change in August
EIA crude oil inventories down by 6.1 million barrels vs. estimated reduction of 2.9 million barrels, suggesting stronger demand
Price Action News
Flash PMI figures from the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors turned out to be huge disappointments this month, triggering a wave lower for the Greenback during the New York session.
The U.S. currency tried to pull higher during the early Asian session but was unable to recoup much of its losses, suggesting that anti-USD sentiment might stay in play. For now, volatility has been subdued while market players brace for fireworks during the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. headline and core durable goods orders at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Harker’s speech at 4:00 pm GMT
Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off today
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
EUR/NZD: 15-min
This forex pair recently fell through its support zone around the 1.8230-1.8270 area before bouncing off the lows near the 1.8150 minor psychological mark.
A pullback seems to be in order, as EUR/NZD is closing in on the 38.2% Fib near the former floor, which might now hold as a ceiling.
A larger correction could reach the 50% Fib that’s closer to the pivot point (1.8300) and a major psychological resistance.
If any of these are able to keep gains in check, watch out for the bearish move to resume and take price down to the swing low or S1 (1.8120).
There’s not much in the way of top-tier catalysts for now, but it’s worth remembering that the euro region printed mostly downbeat flash PMI readings that might be enough to keep the ECB on dovish footing.
With that, euro traders could price in expectations for cautious remarks from ECB head Lagarde during her Jackson Hole speech later this week.
On the flip side, the Kiwi could be poised to benefit from risk-on flows if majority of global policymakers express a shift to a less hawkish policy bias.
