Several series of macro economic data that have been reported since the end of last week have been interpreted that the economy in America is still in the strengthening phase.
Therefore, market players currently expect the Fed's interest rate cut to be implemented in May 2024 instead of March 2024.
Following this, the price of gold is seen to be under pressure. However, the US Dollar's "hawkish" sentiment is seen not to exert full pressure on the gold market due to the geopolitical pressure in the Middle East that is intensifying after the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This week some key macro economic data will be reported and expected to shape market sentiment towards the Fed as well as give direction to gold market players.
Among the focus of the data is the "Global PMI" which will be reported today, the "US GDP Q4" report and the "Core PCE Price Index" on Thursday and Friday.
Data Date Production Report Expected Market Expected SARACEN Previous Reading
25-Jan GDP Annualized (QoQ) Q4, 2023 2.00% 1.70% 4.90%
26-Jan Core PCE Deflator (MoM) December 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
26-Jan Core PCE Deflator (YoY) December 3.00% 3.00% 3.20%
Technical Analysis
The price of gold is seen to be still playing around the price level of $2,040 - $2,017. If the price of gold is seen to break through the price level of $2,017, $2,000 will be the main obstacle in determining the next direction.
$1,973 – $1,960 will be reached if the $2,000 level fails to be maintained. But on the other hand, the price of gold can jump up to the level of $2,065-$2,078 if the main resistance of $2,040 is successfully broken.
