Market Sentiment: US Interest Rate Cut Speculation

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Some weak economic data has been reported since earlier this week further strengthening the case for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which sent the dollar down for a third straight session.


Data on Wednesday showed America's services sector was shrinking at its fastest pace in four years, while the labor market continued to show signs of stabilization.


This development has revived speculation of interest rate cuts as early as September.


Weaker Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, fueled by low rate expectations, have boosted risk sentiment across the market.


The prospect of slower US growth makes a rate cut in September more likely, with market players now expecting almost two rate cuts in 2024, expected as early as November.



Minutes from the Fed's policy meeting in June are seen to have emphasized that evidence of strong economic data is still needed as evidence of inflation easing.


Market sentiment is also affected by political uncertainty in America, market players are now watching for any signs of President Joe Biden potentially withdrawing from the presidential race. This is because there is strong speculation that the possible return of Donald Trump to office.


Attention is now fully focused on Friday's US jobs data report, the NFP, with an expected increase of 200,000 in June, down from the previous month, and the unemployment rate remaining at 4%.


This data report will be an important focus for the Fed as it seeks justification for easing rates.


Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has warned that the central bank needs to see more data before committing to a rate cut.

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