Surprise! Goldman Sachs And J.P. Morgan Cuts China Growth Forecast 2024!

thecekodok


Goldman Sachs on Monday lowered its forecast for China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 to 4.9% from 5.0% after data showed the country's economy slowed in the second quarter.


"To deal with weak domestic demand, we believe more policy easing is needed throughout the year, especially in fiscal and housing," Goldman Sachs economists said.


J. P. Morgan on the other hand said China's second quarter GDP report and June activity data showed that economic activity in the country remained "fragile, unstable and uneven."



The brokerage firm lowered its 2024 GDP forecast for the country to 4.7% from its previous estimate of 5.2%.


China's economy grew 4.7% in the second quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, missing analysts' expectations, even as policymakers sought to boost domestic demand amid a prolonged property slump. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected second-quarter GDP to grow 5.1% from a year earlier, slightly slower than 5.3% in the previous three months.


The government is targeting economic growth of around 5.0% for 2024, a target that most analysts believe is difficult and may require more stimulus.


On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew 0.7% in April-June, below expectations for a 1.1% increase and compared with a revised 1.5% increase in the previous quarter. Analysts expect policymakers to take more steps to stimulate the economy amid a slump in real estate, rising local government debt, and weak private sector spending.

Tags