Will the PCE Index Confirm the Fed's 'Cut Rates' Happening in September?

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Being one of the main indicators of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in determining the direction of their monetary policy, the United States (US) economic growth data report in the second quarter became the focus yesterday.


The preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024 recorded a higher growth figure than forecast, which was 2.8% over 2.0%.


This shows a positive sign when compared to the first quarter which recorded lower growth at 1.4% after the updated data.


However, analysts saw the data did not change expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut measures to be implemented in September, but the percentage decreased slightly.


In addition, some data is also published together including unemployment benefit claims as well as durable goods order data.


The US dollar was seen showing a somewhat mixed movement in the New York session yesterday following the release of the GDP data failed to drive further strengthening.


The market is likely to remain cautiously awaiting the next indication today (Friday) from the PCE price index data which measures the personal spending of US consumers.


As one of the components of inflation, this data is given attention by the Fed with the expectation that the decrease in the latest reading will further strengthen investors' confidence for interest rate cuts to be carried out in September.


Other major currencies remained on the dark side of the market heading into week-end trade.


The yen started to show a decline after a continuous strengthening against the US dollar previously reaching the level of 152.00.


The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is seen to recover slightly after a fall driven by the rate cut decision by the central bank of Canada (BOC) on Wednesday to reach the lowest level since last April.

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