Falling Unemployment Benefits: Positive Signal or Silent Threat?

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The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remained low, which could help ease concerns that the labor market is deteriorating.


Initial claims for state jobless benefits fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended August 31, the Labor Department said on Thursday (Sept 5). Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.


Those claims have hovered around the 230,000 level since falling from an 11-month high in late July as seasonal disruptions from the auto industry and Hurricane Beryl subsided. The data continued to show no signs of a labor market slowdown, although job openings fell to a 3½-year low in July.


The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described employment levels as "generally stable to slightly higher in recent weeks."


A slowdown in the labor market, characterized by a sharp reduction in hiring, has put an interest rate cut of 50 basis points a possibility at the US Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 17-18.


However, economists believe the US central bank will begin its easing cycle with a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point as domestic demand remains strong.


The number of people receiving benefits after the initial week of aid, a measure of hiring, fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.838 million for the week ended Aug. 24, according to the claims report.


These ongoing claims are close to levels last seen in late 2021, consistent with longer periods of unemployment.


These claims data have no impact on the jobs report for August, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, as it is outside the survey period.

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