Small Increase in Unemployment Benefits: A Signal for the Fed?

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The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating that the level of layoffs remains low despite a slowing labor market.


Initial applications for state jobless benefits rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Sept. 7, according to Labor Department findings on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 applications for the week.




Following the Labor Day holiday, applications tend to be unstable around public holidays. However, it has been little changed since falling from an 11-month high of 250,000 in late July. The slowdown in the labor market is being driven by companies cutting back on hiring as higher interest rates curb demand across the economy.


Government data last week showed non-farm payrolls rose less than expected in August but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.


In a slowing labor market, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin its policy easing cycle next Thursday, with a rate cut of 25 basis points guaranteed after annual increases in consumer prices slowed significantly in August, despite some resilience in inflation.


The central bank has kept the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for one year, after raising it by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023.


The number of people receiving benefits after the first week of aid, an indicator of hiring, rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.850 million in the week ended Aug. 31, according to a filing report.


So-called continuous applications have mostly declined through August after surging in July to levels last seen at the end of 2021. This decline is consistent with the decline in the unemployment rate last month.

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