ADP Jobs Data and Fed Conference Will Be Early NFP Focus; Gold Faces Key Resistance Levels Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Market players will now pay full attention to the ADP employment change data that will be announced and also comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials tonight to get a clearer indication of the trajectory of interest rate cuts.
These two official events are seen to have the potential to have a significant impact on the value of the US dollar and the price of gold.
Data uncertainty from the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the JOLTS Job Openings data report yesterday seemed to fail to provide a clear direction for the Fed's interest rate policy, leaving the gold market in a state of uncertainty, while looking for more concrete signals.
On the other hand, there is constant concern that the conflict between Iran and Israel could erupt into a larger regional war. However, it should be noted that if the geopolitical tension in the Middle East eases again, especially if there is no further aggression from Israel, the price of gold, which is seen as a "safe-heaven" asset, is expected to face resale pressure when risk sentiment stabilizes again.
However, recent tensions in the Middle East, including reports of Iran's bombing of Israel yesterday, have re-injected volatility risks into global markets.
At this point, investors are seen to have turned to safe assets such as gold, the US dollar, and government bonds.
Technical Analysis: Gold at a Crucial Crossroads
Based on the daily chart, the gold price should trade close above the $2,633 price level to continue the new upward momentum. Gold's high of $2,686 became the main obstacle.
But if that level is successfully broken, gold is seen to be able to create a new record high price at least around the $2,740 price level.
However, if it is the other way around, the drop in gold prices below the $2,633 level is seen to push the gold price to a lower level around the $2,600-$2,580 price level.
