Canadian Retail Sales Are Back on Track! What Does This Mean for the Economy?

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In September, retail sales in Canada rose 0.4% to $66.9 billion, with increases recorded in six of the nine subsectors. Food and beverage retailers led the growth.


Core retail sales, which exclude sales at gas stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.4% in the same month. In terms of volume, retail sales rose 0.8%.


In the third quarter of this year, retail sales rose 0.9%, and a more significant 1.3% increase was recorded when only volume is taken into account.


After a decline in August, core retail sales rebounded in September, driven by a 3.0% increase among food and beverage retailers. Supermarkets and other retail stores, excluding convenience stores, saw a significant recovery with a 3.3% increase after a 1.9% decline in August.


Retailers of building materials and garden equipment and supplies also reported a 3.0% jump in sales in September.


The only subsector to record a decline in core retail sales was clothing and related accessories, down 0.8%.


In contrast, gas stations and fuel dealers saw the most significant decline in retail sales, down 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month. However, in terms of volume, this subsector’s sales increased by 3.2%.


Vehicle and parts dealers also experienced a 0.7% decline in sales, mainly due to lower sales among new car dealers, followed by used car dealers and other vehicle dealers. However, automotive parts, accessories, and tire retailers posted a positive change with sales increasing by 4.2%.


Retail sales increased in five Canadian provinces in September, with Alberta recording the highest increase of 2.3%, largely driven by vehicle and parts dealers. Quebec saw modest growth of 0.6%, with the Montréal area posting a 0.3% increase. Ontario, on the other hand, experienced a slight decline in retail sales of 0.1%, with sales in Toronto remaining flat.


Canadian retail e-commerce sales also posted growth, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 3.3% to $4.1 billion in September, accounting for 6.2% of total retail trade. This was a slight increase from the 6.0% share recorded in August.


Going forward, preliminary estimates by Statistics Canada show a potential increase in retail sales of 0.7% for October. However, this preliminary figure is subject to revision, based on a 58.9% survey response rate, compared to the final average response rate of 88.9% over the past year.

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