Recently, OCBC Global Market Research has given a statement that Malaysia has the potential to become one of the threatened economies in Asia if Donald Trump wins the presidential election again in early November.
According to the analysis, the company emphasized that from January to August 2024, Malaysia's exports to the US exceeded those of China, increasing the country's attention to possible US tariffs.
The "China +1" strategy adopted by ASEAN countries after the imposition of tariffs in 2018 has benefited economies such as Malaysia, which risk being targeted if Trump carries out his election promise to raise tariffs.
Currently, Trump is already prepared to impose tariffs between 10-20% on imports from various countries and up to 60% on goods from China if he becomes US President again.
OCBC has explained three scenarios for the implementation of tariffs, where the second scenario predicts the possibility of Malaysia experiencing a drop of up to 0.9% points in growth due to this measure.
Although the tariffs imposed on China are much higher and may cause a slowdown in demand, OCBC stated that with increased investment this effect will be easily overcome.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research stated that Malaysia's trade industry will be affected by the upcoming US presidential election, regardless of the winner.
Trump's victory may lead to the risk of Malaysia losing export markets while if Kamala Harris wins, the US dollar is likely to weaken, freezing the DXY around 102-103, giving support to the ringgit.
A Harris victory is also expected to lower US treasury yields, benefiting Malaysian bonds.
The results of this election will determine the direction of Malaysia's economy in the face of the ongoing wave of global speculation.
