“Santa Claus Rally”: Opportunity or Risk for Year-End Investors?

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Stock futures fell on Monday ahead of the final few trading sessions of 2024.


Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 360 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1%.


Major stock markets are ending the year slightly below record highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow up more than 25% and 14%, respectively, and on track for their best year since 2021. The Nasdaq is up more than 31% in 2024.


Benchmarks are also heading into a profitable fourth quarter, with the Nasdaq expected to post its longest quarterly winning streak since 2021.


Investors are hoping stocks will continue to rally through the end of the year and into the new year, sparking what is known as the Santa Claus Rally. This phenomenon refers to a market that rises in the last five trading days of a calendar year and the first two days of January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 1.3% during this period, according to LPL Financial.


However, there are concerns that the market may be losing momentum, with some investors taking profits after major stock markets posted a decline on Friday.


This week has seen a light period for economic data, with markets closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day. Chicago PMI and pending home sales data are due out on Monday.

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