US Private Payrolls Rise Modestly: Facts and Experts’ Forecasts

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Private sector payrolls in the United States rose at a moderate pace in November, according to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday.


Private sector payrolls rose by 146,000 jobs last month after a downward revision to 184,000 jobs in October.


Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private sector employment rising by 150,000 positions after a previous report showed a surge of 233,000 in October.


The ADP report, developed in conjunction with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was released ahead of the more comprehensive and eagerly awaited November jobs report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.


There is no direct correlation between the ADP report and the NFP jobs report. The ADP preliminary data is largely uncorrelated with private sector wage growth this year. A pick-up in job growth is expected in November after being hit hard by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as factory workers’ strikes at Boeing and other aerospace companies.


Private sector payrolls are expected to rebound by 200,000 jobs last month after falling by 28,000 in October, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That is expected to contribute to a 200,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls.


The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, the fewest since December 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1% in October.

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